The hair relaxer litigation is still too early for settlement announcements. No global resolution has been reached, and bellwether trials that will significantly influence settlement values haven't yet occurred. But understanding how pharmaceutical and product liability settlements work helps set realistic expectations for what may eventually come.
Where Things Stand
Hair relaxer cases are consolidated in an MDL in Illinois, with thousands of individual claims pending. The litigation is moving through discovery, with plaintiffs' attorneys obtaining documents from manufacturers and taking depositions of company witnesses. The process of selecting and preparing bellwether cases is underway.
This phase of litigation typically takes years. Manufacturers have strong incentives to defend vigorously before any settlements, both to test the strength of plaintiffs' claims and to avoid establishing precedents that could inflate future settlements. Plaintiffs' attorneys, meanwhile, need to build the evidentiary record that will support settlement demands.
The absence of settlements now doesn't indicate anything about the litigation's merits. It simply reflects where mass tort cases typically stand a year or two after consolidation. Meaningful settlement activity usually follows bellwether verdicts that give both sides data about how juries respond to the evidence.
What Will Drive Settlement Values
When settlements eventually happen, several factors will determine overall values and individual allocations.
The strength of scientific evidence matters enormously. The NIH Sister Study finding that frequent straightener users had more than double the uterine cancer risk provides strong support for causation. If additional studies reinforce this connection, or if internal company documents reveal manufacturers knew about cancer risks, settlement values will reflect that strength. Conversely, if defendants succeed in challenging the science or establishing alternative explanations for plaintiffs' cancers, values will be lower.
Bellwether verdicts will be crucial. If juries award substantial damages to plaintiffs in test cases, manufacturers face the prospect of similar verdicts in thousands of pending cases—creating powerful incentive to settle. Defense verdicts, on the other hand, weaken plaintiffs' leverage and typically result in lower settlement offers.
The number and quality of filed claims also influences settlement calculations. Manufacturers assess their total exposure across all cases when deciding what settlement amounts make economic sense.
Individual Case Factors
Within any global settlement, individual case values will vary based on specific circumstances. Cancer type and severity matter: uterine cancer cases may receive more than ovarian cancer cases given the stronger statistical evidence. Cases involving advanced-stage cancer, extensive treatment, or death will typically be valued higher than early-stage cases caught and treated successfully.
Duration and frequency of product use affects both causation arguments and perceived case strength. Women who used chemical straighteners weekly for twenty years have stronger exposure profiles than women who used products occasionally for a short period. Documentation of this usage—through records, testimony, or other evidence—strengthens the case further.
Age and impact matter for damages calculations. A young woman whose cancer required hysterectomy, ending her ability to have children, has different damages than an older woman past childbearing age. Lost income claims vary based on earning capacity and how cancer affected the ability to work.
How Settlement Distribution Works
Mass tort settlements typically establish a fund and a claims process. A settlement matrix assigns point values for various criteria—cancer type, treatment extent, product use duration, age, and other factors. Each claimant submits documentation to a claims administrator, points are calculated, and the point total determines what tier or payment amount applies.
Attorneys take their contingency percentage from individual recoveries—typically one-third to 40% depending on the fee agreement. Case expenses advanced by the firm are also reimbursed from the recovery. The remainder goes to the plaintiff.
Managing Expectations
It's impossible to predict specific settlement values before any settlements have occurred. Comparisons to other mass tort cases provide rough benchmarks, but every litigation is different. The hair relaxer MDL involves unique scientific evidence, unique defendants, unique plaintiffs, and unique legal issues.
What can be said is that the litigation is substantial and the evidence supporting it is credible. The NIH study findings received significant attention precisely because they were strong and came from a respected source. Manufacturers face meaningful liability exposure, which creates genuine settlement pressure.
For individual plaintiffs, the best approach is to file claims promptly, document histories thoroughly, and let the litigation process unfold. Settlements will come when both sides determine they're preferable to continued litigation. Predicting exactly when that happens or exactly what numbers result is speculation that serves no one well.